Alumnus Paul Rossman to Talk Baseball

Posted on 3/30/2011 3:56:45 PM

Alumnus Paul Rossman (M.S. in Applied Mathematics, 2008) will present his research on predicting a minor league player’s chances of making it to the major leagues at the annual meeting of the Pittsburgh Chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research on April 30, 2011, at the Heinz History Center.

His research is an extension of the work he did for his thesis at IUP.


Baseball is a sport full of numbers and statistics. With a large sample size of a 162-game season, it also is a perfect atmosphere for advanced statistical analysis. Fewer than one thousand players competed at the Major League level this past season, but more than three thousand played in the minor leagues with the hope and ambition of making it to “the big show.” In reality, however, less than 10 percent of these players will actually accomplish that dream.

This talk contends that a probability can be determined for each player in the minor leagues that predicts that player’s chances of making it to the major leagues. Probabilities are computed using logistic regression.

Department of Mathematics